Tuesday, January 11, 2005

U.S. Trade Deficits-Not to Worry

I am not overly concerned about US Balance of Payments deficits and in fact I consider it a sign of strength for now. (Admittedly it won't last forever.) NRO Financial had a nice, readable piece yesterday Global Misunderstanding :
"the very definition of a profitable trade is one in which the individual receives more than he gives. Better yet, the best transactions are not those in which $10 is exchanged for $10 of goods, but instead when exports worth $10 attract imports worth $11.
With the above in mind, it's no surprise that rich countries very often run trade deficits. As for surpluses, 19th century economist Bastiat reminded his readers that a sure way to achieve a trade surplus would be for the country desirous of one to simply sink goods marked for export offshore. This would lead to a favorable balance of trade, all the while insuring that imports meant to be exchanged for the sunken exports would not reach the shores of the country seemingly bent on impoverishing itself.
...[T]hose who worry about trade imbalances are revealing a basic misunderstanding about what causes people and countries to exchange goods, and in the process impart wealth to each other. China's supposed flooding of the United States with goods is not a sign of economic weakness on our part, but instead one of strength. If we're flooded with products, it's because we can pay for them. "

This is basic enforcement of the theory of comparative advantage from Adam Smith in 1776 (a very big year) and David Ricardo in the 1820's. (I may as well do another post on this later since I find it exciting, although I suppose one of the few....) Comparative advantage is the heart of economic thinking.

I am not yet worried about fiscal US deficits either because at current they are cyclical not structural. More on that later as I delve into the need to reform Social Security, Medicare (and health care) in order to avoid structural deficits which I do worry about for the future strength of the US economy and country.

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