Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Yuan Headed for Controlled Float
China's Currency May Float a Little: "Sixty percent of China's state economists think the government should allow the country's currency to increase in value sometime this year, according to a survey compiled Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The survey of 60 economists -- an internal study confirmed by two participants -- reinforced a growing consensus that sometime this summer China will adjust slightly upward the value of its currency, the renminbi, also known as the yuan, which has been pegged at about 8.28 to the dollar for about a decade.
...Predicting a Chinese currency move has become a perilous if popular game, with some of the world's largest investment banks making bold forecasts of imminent moves in recent months only to see the old regime prevail. The last such outbreak came in May, when some predicted China would use a national holiday week to try to sneak in a change, assuming that markets would be relatively quiet.
In recent weeks, anticipation has been building anew, with many predicting that a move will come sometime in August, ahead of a visit to Washington by President Hu Jintao in September."
I wish I could play in this game....